In this episode of Success That Lasts, Jared Siegel talks about the misconceptions and false expectations people have about economics.

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Here are a few highlights:

  • “As a wealth advisor, I’ve observed that the most persuasive evidence is whatever you want to be true,” Jared shares. “It's easy to seek out information that only confirms pre-existing beliefs; the incentives for being right when investing are so big that it's hard to think clearly about the decision without getting distracted by the potential rewards.”
  • The people lauded as expert forecasters are actually no different from the average person, according to Jared. Forecasters, more often than not, aren’t even held accountable for their predictions, which are often vague and lack specific timelines. Luck is being passed off as a skill.
  • Data shows that between 1992 and 2014, there were 153 recessions, of which economists only predicted 3%. “What if economists are more like rearview mirrors helping us make sense of economic data once it's behind us?” Jared questions.
  • “People who want different things out of the same asset create reasonable differences and opinions that can be misinterpreted as disagreements,” Jared remarks. “Different timelines and different objectives should influence how you think about your wealth.”


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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip Tetlock

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

1992 Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Letter